Oscars: Predictions and Wishes

Here's the round up of what I think should and will win:

BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Will Win: No Country for Old Men. It's almost too easy to call this year. It's way farther ahead of its competitors than Llewelyn Moss ever was of Anton Chigurh.
Should Win: Well, this is a tough year for me to pick because, obviously, four of the five nominated films were among my favorite of the year. Now, I picked There Will Be Blood as my favorite film of the year, and it was my favorite, but I think I would be equally happy if Michael Clayton pulled through because it's a smart genre pic made with such precision and it hasn't won any major awards, really. I'm even cool with a win for Juno, which has become so iconic and could very well become the film from 2007 that leaves the greatest mark on our culture. Part of me thinks future generations could very look back at these Oscars and wonder how Juno ever lost. But I'm fine with the inevitable win for No Country, which I like as a Best Picture winner: it's much darker and, in a way, much simpler than the usual fare that takes this award home.

BEST DIRECTOR
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Coen Bros, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Will Win: The Coen Brothers. And they deserve it.
Should Win: I loved the work of all the nominees in this category--except for Schnabel, but we'll get to that--and picking just one is tough because each film called for very different work. The Coens balanced the urgency of the central chase between Moss and Chigurh with the more melancholy, reflective tones of Bell's pursuit. Anderson created something original and extraordinary, a fictional biopic that was pulse-poundingly alive. Gilroy skirted legal-thriller conventions and created palpable tension with sleek framing and a trio of first-rate performances. Reitman managed to not get too tangled in the words of his characters but rather fashion an approachably quirky world that peeled back its layers and revealed its heart. For me, Schnabel's risky technique--putting the viewer inside Bauby's head with several POV shots and occasional cutaways--only worked on occasion, such as while watching the stares from his children. It was hard for me--though not everyone, clearly, since I was one of the few leaving the theater with dry eyes--to connect to a character when I could so rarely see his eyes, the way an actor or actress traditionally communicates his/her thoughts. But it is, by far, the Coens' to lose, and I doubt they will.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages
Will Win: Juno. Diablo Cody will go from stripper/blogger to Oscar winner in just two years. And everyone will want to see her acceptance speech.
Should Win: Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton. The man who wrote the Bournes crafted a perfectly polished thriller with resonating characters, a plot that twisted in all the right places, and dialogue that crackled without being overly quotable.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Away from Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Will Win: No Country. At this point, all I can say is: Duh.
Should Win: The screenplay for There Will Be Blood is more of an adaptation than most. Upton Sinclair’s "Oil!" was almost more inspiration than blueprints. And yet, knowing when not to change a thing is important, too, and the Coens hold on to so many of Cormac McCarthy’s subtle touches and they do it through both dialogue and action. Should it come to a coin toss?

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney
Daniel Day-Lewis
Johnny Depp
Tommy Lee Jones
Viggo Mortenson
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis. His milkshake brings all the awards to his yard.
Should Win: I love what Day-Lewis did with Plainview, the way he seemed to create a (cracked) soul right in front of us. But there are moments—brief and fleeting moments—where I don’t quite buy Lewis, where I feel he’s going more for the audience’s reaction rather than the reality of the character. Clooney, meanwhile, disappears behind his own face. Clayton’s dressed up in nicely tailored suits, so it’s his eyes and his body language that have to tell his story of frustration and ragged disappointment. And while it looks just like Clooney, you could swear it’s not.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett
Julie Christie
Marion Cotillard
Laura Linney
Ellen Page
Will Win: Not as easy of a call as I think everyone thinks it is. I think that Academy members that actually watch their screeners of La Vie En Rose will suddenly understand the talent of Marion Cotillard. Not only that, but is a pretty showy performance and those are traditionally eaten up. So, although Christie is the favorite, I see Cotillard coming up on the inside. (And I think that, like me, some voters will find her public persona undeniably charming.)
Should Win: It should come as no surprise to anyone who reads this blog that I’m rooting for Cotillard all the way.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck
Javier Bardem
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Hal Holbrook
Tom Wilkinson
Will Win: Javier Bardem. Actually this is the easiest award to predict of the night.
Should Win: Bardem chilled me to the bone from his first scene and he’s not undeserving…but at the end of the year, it’s Holbrook’s gentle, late-in-the-game (late in the movie and late in his career) performance in Into the Wild that will stay with me. The way he conveyed that loneliness and yearning was heart-wrenching without ever being overly-sentimental.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett
Ruby Dee
Saiorse Ronan
Amy Ryan
Tilda Swinton
Will Win: The closest race and the toughest to call. I’m picking Amy Ryan on pure gut instinct. I think her performance offers the least to quibble about in Oscar-terms.
Should Win: Call me crazy, but I think I would vote for Ronan. I think Atonement suffers as soon as she’s not onscreen anymore. The actress—and especially her large, telling eyes—anchor the themes of the film. And it's a fearlessly un-cute performance from a tyke.