2011 Oscar Predictions: The Will-Shoulds

Happy Golden Idol Sunday, everyone! Tonight, we bestow statues upon our various artistes de cinema. And before we do so, I gotta put in my two cents:

Best Picture
WILL WIN: Everyone's money is on The King's Speech. And, you know, smart move. It won the SAG, the PGA, and (INEXPLICABLY) the DGA. However, Social Network won pretty much every other pre-guild award possible. It's also been underreported, but this is one of the youngest voting bodies the Academy has ever had, and the youngsters will lean toward David Fincher's modern masterpiece. The King's Speech is the smart choice, but my gut, my personal preferences, and my desire to be a little contrary are making me pick The Social Network.
SHOULD WIN: The Social Network or 127 Hours.

Best Director
WILL WIN: So my fear here is that Tom Hooper will sweep in with his movie-of-the-week direction, but I think Fincher is so highly respected that he should be ok.
SHOULD WIN: David Fincher

Best Original Screenplay
WILL WIN: The King's Speech. Did you know it was written by a super-old guy? It's true!
SHOULD WIN: The Fighter. I'm not prone to picking a script with so many different writers on it, but of all the nominees, The Fighter is the most clever and soulful balance of character and plot with brilliant pacing and dialogue that stays honest and interesting.

Best Adapted Screenplay
WILL WIN: Sorkin/The Social Network. Duh.
SHOULD WIN: Sorkin/The Social Network. Super duh.

Best Actress
WILL WIN: Natalie Portman. The Academy loves rewarded pretty young women for playing emotionally and mentally fragile pretty young women.
SHOULD WIN: This is a pretty killer category. I think the performance that most blew me away was Jennifer Lawrence's, but how much of that is because I had no idea what to expect from her when I went into the theater? Ultimately, Annette Bening deserves it and, for the love of God, she's put in her time.

Best Actor
WILL WIN: Colin F-f-f-f-firth.
SHOULD WIN: Ryan Gosling. Oh, he's not nominated? Huh? Really? Oh, ok, then James Franco. (Although Jesse Eisenberg is a much more incredible actor than he gets credit for.)

Best Supporting Actress
WILL WIN: Melissa Leo. I know a lot of people think those ads she took out--where she essentially begged for an Oscar will displaying some cleavage--were tacky. And they were. But she'll still win.
SHOULD WIN: Amy Adams. She had a harder role than people realized--she had to be tough and seductive, but we weren't supposed to always be on her side--and she nailed it.

Best Supporting Actor
WILL WIN: Christian Bale. Without a doubt. But will he shave?!?!
SHOULD WIN: Christian Bale, although I kind of think he should have been in the lead category. Would love to see Renner get it for The Town, but it's Bale's and he ain't losing.

Best Editing
WILL WIN: The Social Network
SHOULD WIN: The Social Network, although for the first time in recent memory, there are some really outstanding nominees in this category (and Inception wasn't even nominated).

Animated Feature
WILL WIN: Toy Story 3.
SHOULD WIN: Toy Story 3, unless you LACK THE CAPACITY TO FEEL.

Art Direction
WILL WIN: Alice in Wonderland. Fantasy stuff tends to win this category.
SHOULD WIN: Inception. Every dream level was a beautifully rendered world unto itself.

Original Score
WILL WIN: The Social Network. And if The King's Speech wins, I will... well, I probably wouldn't do anything drastic, but I would be super-disappointed. It's all Beethoven and Mozart, people!!
SHOULD WIN: The Social Network or Inception.

Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
WILL WIN: Inception.
SHOULD WIN: Inception. Last time I found a movie so sonically impressive was... Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight.

Visual Effects
WILL WIN: Inception.
SHOULD WIN: Inception.

Costumes
WILL WIN: Alice in Wonderland. Fantasy stuff.
SHOULD WIN: True Grit. So many more textures to work with, and every look--especially the hats--really helped define the characters for the audience.

Cinematography
WILL WIN: True Grit. Deakins FTW! (Finally)
SHOULD WIN: Inception. Again, the cinematography helped create and define the dream worlds. It wonderfully straddled the line between high art and highly commercial.

In the other categories, I haven't seen all the nominees so I can't really jump in with the "shoulds." But Documentary will go to Inside Job (they politically conscious stuff; sorry, Banksy!), Make-up will go to The Wolfman, and for the shorts, let's go with The Gruffalo, Na Wewe, and Killing in the Name.

Alright, people. Enjoy and show and we'll meet up here afterward.