Emmys 2011: I Pick 'Em So You Don't Have To (Unless You're an Emmy Voter Who Actually Got to Pick 'Em)

I take television pretty seriously. I work in television. I want to always work in television. So the Emmys to me are a Super Bowl of sorts, except that unlike in sports, everything is totally subjective and you cannot realistically pit different pieces of commercial art against each other. But we do, and it's fun!

Keeping that in mind, I'm going to tell what I think will and should win.

BEST DRAMA:
Will Win: I don't think this is as easy to call as everyone suspects. Mad Men has been off the air for months now and, even though renewal negotiations kept it in the industry spotlight, I don't think it's a shoo-in. Plus, a lot of people were confused by Don't big decision in the finale. It's been three years in a row for the AMC show and I think they're ready to spread the wealth to another network. My guess: HBO will be honored and, even though Boardwalk Empire won a lot of awards earlier this year, I think that GAME OF THRONES is too buzzy to ignore.
Should Win: I would be perfectly happy with wins by Mad Men, Game of Thrones, Friday Night Lights, or The Good Wife. But, ultimately, GAME OF THRONES was the most surprising and consistent and, of all the nominees, feels like the true trailblazer.

BEST COMEDY:
Will Win: Although it's not the sure-thing it was last year, I think MODERN FAMILY simply has too much broad appeal. And even though the season was uneven, it still had a slew of very worthy episodes to submit.
Should Win: Without a doubt, PARKS & RECREATION, the most hilarious and heartfelt half-hour on television.

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA:
Will Win: No actor from Mad Men has ever won. The campaign for JON HAMM has been very strong. Jon Hamm will win.
Should Win: Jon Hamm is brilliant and is, realistically, probably going to be a huge star for the rest of his life. (Especially in the comedy world.) I will enjoy hearing his acceptance speech. But KYLE CHANDLER, in his final season as Coach on Friday Night Lights, gave a master class performance, balancing restrained anger with uncorrupted passion.

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA:
Will Win: Ummmmmmmmm... JULIANNA MARGUILES. Maybe? This one is really tough. Kathy Bates has won an Oscar so she could pull off a Sally Field win. Elisabeth Moss submitted one of the best hours of television ever produced, "The Suitcase" episode - which she was phenomenal in - so she's a contender, too. Connie Britton could maybe cash in on all the sudden late love for Friday Night Lights.
Should Win: I love Moss. I love Britton. I love Marguiles. Ultimately, I choose the actress whose performance completely anchors her show: MARGUILES.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY:
Will Win: STEVE CARRELL, but it will be more like a "Thanks for all your seasons of work" Award.
Should Win: Alec Baldwin's Jack Donaghey still hasn't gotten old to me and I adore Louis CK on Louie, but I like him better as a writer/director than an actor. For pure laughs, I'd give it to MATT LEBLANC for Episodes, if just for squirm-inducingly funny way he uncorked a bottle of wine at a benefit for rape victims.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY:
Will Win: Two years ago, Toni Collette won for her first-year Showtime show. Last year, Edie Falco won for her first-year Showtime show. This year, Laura Linney will win for her first-year Showtime sho-- needle scratch! Even though Linney's the favorite, I think the Emmys will finally pick comedy over dramedy and honor AMY POEHLER for her vivacious performance on Parks and Recreation.
Should Win: Poehler. In fact, she should win a few Emmys that are welded together.

BEST WRITING IN A DRAMA:
Will Win: Whoa! Didn't think I would cover this category?! Of course I would. It's probably the most important category. But yeah, this one's easy - Matt Weiner will win this category for the fourth year in a row with "THE SUITCASE", the MAD MEN episode in which Don and Peggy stay up all night working on a campaign just after Don finds out that one of his best friends has died. Heartbreaking, engrossing, and about as perfect as television gets.
Should Win: See above.

BEST WRITING IN A COMEDY:
Will Win: Considering how respected he is in the television and comedy industries - and considering how this nominated episode is funny, touching, and covertly political - I think Louis CK will win for "POKER/DIVORCE" from the first season of LOUIE.
Should Win: "REAGANING", a season 5 episode of 30 ROCK that was so good, it could have been from season 2.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA:
Will Win: I think it's a Cumming vs. Dinklage battle. My gut says ALAN CUMMING (The Good Wife) wins.
Should Win: PETER DINKLAGE, on Game of Thrones, for lacing a smart-alecky, misunderstood character with just the right touches of sadness and sentimentality. A win for Braugher, whose Men of a Certain Age met its end too soon, would be swell, too.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA:
Will Win: This one feels like a Martindale vs. McDonald battle. Ultimately, I think MARGO MARTINDALE (Justified) is such a respected character actress that she'll take it.
Should Win: This is going to be an unpopular choice, but for me, it's hands-down CHRISTINE BARANKSI. Diane Lockhart on The Good Wife is one of the most interesting women on TV, and not only because she's written that way. She's smart but vulnerable, she's bossy and a good listener, she's opinionated but open-minded. Baranski balances all those with a sharp, reigned-in performance that only looks easy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY:
Will Win: Part of me thinks they'll give it to Jon Cryer for surviving the Sheenocalypse (and because the Modern Family guys will cancel each other out.) But I bet one of the Modern Family guys takes it... and I bet it's TY BURRELL, whose consistently harried put-upon husband and father is probably the show's top laugh-getter.
Should Win: Well, since Nick Offerman is inexplicably absent (and so are Adam Scott and Chris Pratt), I would mark the box beside JESSE TYLER FERGUSON, who turns so many reaction shots and to-the-camera moments into perfectly-timed laugh riots. I guess you could say that about all of the Modern Family guys - and gals - but I like his best.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY:
Will Win: They could easily give it to Betty White, because she's a national institution now and still delivers punchlines. They could easily give it to Kristen Wiig, who should be a contender at the Oscars next year for Bridesmaids for Screenplay (fingers crossed) and Best Actress (in my dreams, probably). They could easily give it to the host of the show, Jane Lynch. But I think they pick a Modern Family mama, and I think they will go with the curvacious Colombian, SOFIA VERGARA.
Should Win: Much like Jesse Tyler Ferguson, I think JULIE BOWEN can turn a well-timed, unscripted look into pure comedy gold. Plus, I would argue that she's actually the best physical comedian on the show.

Those are my picks. If you have disposable income, I highly suggest placing large bets on all my selections. You have disposable income! Your life is great, you have nothing to lose! Do it!